时 间：2026年10月30日（周五） 15：00 - 16：00
地 点：普陀校区理科大楼A1714室
报告人：池义春 中央财经大学龙马特聘教授
邀请人：钱林义 华东师范大学统计学院
摘 要：
This talk explains the long-standing low-deductible anomaly in insurance markets using a prior-free disappointment framework. Under this specification, the policyholder evaluates each realized outcome against the full set of alternative outcomes that her chosen contract could have delivered, rather than against an exogenous pre-formed expectation. We show that under the expected value premium principle, the optimal contract remains a straight deductible, and the optimal deductible level falls as disappointment aversion rises. We prove that full insurance can be optimal even under actuarially unfair pricing when disappointment aversion is sufficiently high and the zero-loss probability is relatively large, thereby overturning the classical Mossin’s Theorem. We also find that insurance can be a normal good when the policyholder exhibits strong disappointment aversion. Finally, we calibrate our model using previously documented homeowner insurance data and demonstrate that our framework provides a more reasonable explanation for the empirical insurance choice than the expected utility paradigm. (This is a joint work with Wenjun Jiang and Tingdi Ren)
报告人简介：
池义春，中央财经大学龙马特聘教授，博士生导师。2009年博士毕业于北京大学，在加拿大多伦多大学做过一年的博士后研究，为加拿大滑铁卢大学访问教授，2015年在中央财经大学破格普升为研究员。现主要从事精算学和风险管理理论研究，先后主持四项国家自然科学基金项目和两项教育部人文社科重点研究基地重大课题，在国际著名的精算学杂志ASTIN Bulletin、 Insurance: Mathematics and Economics、North American Actuarial Journal、Scandinavian Actuarial Journal，经济学期刊Economic Theory、Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization，金融数学杂志Finance and Stochastics和运筹学杂志European Journal of Operational Research等发表学术论文四十多篇，荣获2012年北美非寿险精算协会的Charles A. Hachemeister奖，2018年入选中央财经大学首届青年龙马学者项目。目前担任中国现场统计研究会风险管理与精算分会副主任、中国工业与应用数学学会金融数学与工程和精算保险专业委员会副主任、中国保险学会智库专家库专家等。