时 间：2024年7月23日 10:00 - 11:30
地 点：普陀校区理科大楼A1514
报告人：Xiaobai Zhu 香港中文大学助理教授
主持人：李丹萍华东师范大学教授
摘 要：
The significance of mortality modeling extends across multiple research areas, including life insurance valuation, longevity risk management, life-cycle hypothesis, and retirement income planning. Despite the variety of existing approaches, such as mortality laws, intensity processes, and factor-based models, they often lack compatibility or fail to meet specific research needs. To address these shortcomings, our study introduces a novel approach centered on modeling the dynamics of individual vitality and defining mortality as the depletion of vitality level to zero. More specifically, we develop a four-component modeling framework to analyze the initial value, trend, diffusion, and sudden changes in vitality level over an individual's lifetime. Our vitality-based mortality model stands out for its modularity, broad applicability, and enhanced interpretability, offering an alternative paradigm for mortality modeling. We demonstrate the model's estimation and analytical capabilities through a numerical example, followed by a detailed discussion on its practical implementation and significance in various research directions.
报告人简介：
Xiaobai Zhu，香港中文大学金融系助理教授，科研方向为养老金精算与长寿风险模型。博士毕业于加拿大滑铁卢大学。在ASTIN Bulletin、Scandinavian Actuarial Journal等保险精算国际权威期刊上发表论文十余篇。