时 间：2025年6月16日（周一）15：30 – 17：00
地 点：理科大楼A1714室
报告人：Guanyu Hu University of Texas Health Science Center 助理教授
主持人：谌自奇 华东师范大学研究员
摘 要：
Basketball shot charts offer rich spatial and contextual information that reveal nuanced patterns in player behavior and game strategy. In this talk, we present a novel Bayesian framework for modeling and interpreting the spatial dynamics of shot selection. We begin with a log Gaussian Cox process (LGCP) model to jointly analyze the locations and outcomes (made/missed) of shots across multiple games, capturing spatially varying covariate effects through hierarchical Gaussian processes. To facilitate efficient inference, we design a custom Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using a kernel convolution approach. Building on this foundation, we introduce a complementary modeling strategy using Functional Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (FBART), which provides flexible, nonparametric regression capabilities and uncertainty quantification. To improve scalability and accuracy, we further propose the Adaptive Functional BART (AFBART) model, which employs adaptive basis functions to better capture the nonlinear and nonstationary nature of shot selection behavior. Through extensive simulation studies and a real-world case study examining the shot charts of NBA legends Stephen Curry, LeBron James, and Michael Jordan, we showcase the power of our approach in extracting actionable insights. Our framework reveals how spatial context, playing conditions, and opponent characteristics influence shooting efficiency—offering practical tools for analysts, coaches, and players seeking a competitive edge.
报告人简介：
Dr. Hu is the assistant professor at the University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston. Dr. Hu’s research mainly focuses on Bayesian nonparametric methods, spatial and spatio-temporal statistics, point process, and causal inference. Dr. Hu has also worked on the analysis of clinical trials, spatial transcriptomic, regional economics, environmental science, educational measurements, and sports data. Now, Dr. Hu is the associate editor of Biometrics, Annals of Applied Statistics，Environmental and Ecological Statistics and Statistics and its interface and he also serves as the Chair of ASA statistics in sports section and the Program Chair of ISBA East Asia Chapter. Dr. Hu is elected member of ISI.